THE TRANSFORMATION OF EU ENERGY IMPORTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ENERGY SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Abstract

The paper analyses the impact of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East on the energy security of the European Union (EU) in the context of efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent adoption of European sanctions against the Russian Federation. In this context, the EU diversified its supply sources by increasing imports of liquefied natural gas and oil from countries such as Qatar, while also strengthening energy relations with suppliers in the Middle East and other regions. However, the escalation of regional tensions and the risks to maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz create new vulnerabilities for the European energy market and the stability of energy prices. The research is based on the hypothesis that the European Union has not eliminated the geopolitical vulnerability of its energy security but has instead transferred it to new external dependencies and trade routes exposed to geopolitical instability. The methodology combines qualitative analysis of European energy policies, particularly the European Green Deal and REPowerEU, with quantitative analysis of EU energy trade flows using COMEXT data. The study aims to assess the extent to which current European policies are sufficient to strengthen strategic energy autonomy and highlights the need to accelerate investments in renewable energy, green hydrogen, storage infrastructure, and nuclear energy as complementary solutions for reducing the European Union’s external vulnerabilities.