A STRUCTURAL BRIDGE BETWEEN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND SEMI-STRUCTURAL MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING: EVIDENCE FROM MOLDOVA

2026-06-21T10:59:27+03:00

This paper develops a parsimonious structural bridge linking semi-structural macroeconometric estimation with input-output sectoral analysis for the Republic of Moldova, addressing the analytical gap between aggregate forecasting and sectoral diagnostics in small post-Soviet economies. The methodology proceeds in three steps: macroeconomic shocks are translated into expenditure-side aggregates using OLS elasticities; aggregate changes are distributed across 20 NACE Rev.2 sectors using two alternative weighting schemes (one IO-derived, the other derived independently from BNS customs export data); sectoral output impacts are obtained via Leontief multiplication. Aggregate impacts converge within ±2% across schemes despite substantial sectoral divergence, providing evidence that economy-wide results are robust to the choice of export weighting. Four counterfactual scenarios are examined: a 5% EU27 demand contraction generates a 9.8% reduction in total gross output, with 26% accruing to non-export sectors via supply-chain channels invisible in aggregate models; a 10% fiscal revenue increase yields a sub-unitary multiplier (1.03) reflecting import leakage; a 15% currency depreciation generates zero sectoral impact under strict elasticities; single-sector shocks reveal a duality of static IO under demand and supply interpretations. The methodology is reproducible from public data and transferable to comparable post-Soviet economies.

Economy and Sociology

A STRUCTURAL BRIDGE BETWEEN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND SEMI-STRUCTURAL MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING: EVIDENCE FROM MOLDOVA