https://economy-sociology.ince.md/index.php/Economy_and_Sociology <p>Theoretical and scientifical journal</p> National Institute for Economic Research en-US Economy and Sociology 2587-4195 https://economy-sociology.ince.md/index.php/Economy_and_Sociology/article/view/279 <p class="western" align="justify"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="en-GB">This paper develops a parsimonious structural bridge linking semi-structural macroeconometric estimation with input-output sectoral analysis for the Republic of Moldova, addressing the analytical gap between aggregate forecasting and sectoral diagnostics in small post-Soviet economies. The methodology proceeds in three steps: macroeconomic shocks are translated into expenditure-side aggregates using OLS elasticities; aggregate changes are distributed across 20 NACE Rev.2 sectors using two alternative weighting schemes (one IO-derived, the other derived independently from BNS customs export data); sectoral output impacts are obtained via Leontief multiplication. Aggregate impacts converge within ±2% across schemes despite substantial sectoral divergence, providing evidence that economy-wide results are robust to the choice of export weighting. Four counterfactual scenarios are examined: a 5% EU27 demand contraction generates a 9.8% reduction in total gross output, with 26% accruing to non-export sectors via supply-chain channels invisible in aggregate models; a 10% fiscal revenue increase yields a sub-unitary multiplier (1.03) reflecting import leakage; a 15% currency depreciation generates zero sectoral impact under strict elasticities; single-sector shocks reveal a duality of static IO under demand and supply interpretations. The methodology is reproducible from public data and transferable to comparable post-Soviet economies.</span></span></span></p> Andrian Tataru Ion Pârțachi Copyright (c) 2026 Economy and Sociology https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 2026-06-21 2026-06-21 1 10.36004/nier.es.2026.1-03