CHANGING FERTILITY INTENTIONS IN MOLDOVA

Abstract

This article examines the realisation of short-term fertility intentions in the Republic of Moldova using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) Waves 1 (2020) and 2 (2023). Moldova faces persistent below-replacement fertility and high emigration rates, yet survey evidence indicates that individuals’ desired number of children exceeds the actual number of births. By tracking approximately 650 respondents who intended to have a child within three years in 2020, we assess the extent to which these intentions were realised and identify the factors that facilitated or hindered their realisation. Descriptive and multivariate analyses reveal that only about one-third of intended births occurred within the observation period, reflecting significant unmet reproductive intentions. Partnership status, age, parity, and subjective well-being emerge as key determinants of successful realisation, while economic insecurity, unstable relationships, and migration contribute to unmet plans. The analysis also contextualises these outcomes within Moldova’s recent social and economic shocks as well as major family policy reforms adopted in 2022, which aim to strengthen parental leave, childcare availability, and financial protection around childbirth. The findings highlight substantial structural barriers that limit individuals’ ability to achieve their reproductive goals and underscore the need for sustained policies that enhance family support, gender equality, and economic stability, helping align fertility outcomes with citizens’ aspirations.