DETERRING AND THREATENING IN THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: A GAME THEORY PERSPECTIVE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2024.1-10Keywords:
Russian-Ukrainian war, realism, idealism, game theory, strategy, international relationsAbstract
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a significant turning point in the post-World War II history of Europe, with the realist and idealist views on international relations offering contrasting interpretations of its underlying sources. While each perspective provides valuable insights, neither captures entirely the complex dynamics of foreign affairs, which frequently straddle a middle ground between the conflictual and cooperative states of nations. This paper takes on a game theory approach to bridge the gap between the realist and idealist views on international relations, with the analysis of two scenarios: a limited deterrence game, viewing the conflict as a proxy war between NATO and Russia, and an extended deterrence game, seeing the conflict as a direct war between Russia and Ukraine with potential help from NATO. The findings offer a nuanced understanding of the dynamics between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO with practical significance, suggesting that NATO should have employed a strategy of decisive support for Ukraine, as anything less allowed Russia to underestimate the consequences of the full-scale invasion.
Downloads
References
Braun, A. (2022, February 24). Western deterrence has failed in Ukraine. The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-western-deterrence-has-failed-in-ukraine/
Collins, L. (2023, February 20). U.S. deterrence failed in Ukraine. My Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/20/ukraine-deterrence-failed-putin-invasion/
Drezner, D. W. (2022, March 27). Why did deterrence fail in Ukraine? The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/27/why-did-deterrence-fail-ukraine/
European Council of the European Union. (2024). Timeline - EU sanctions against Russia. European Council. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/timeline-sanctions-against-russia/
European Court of Human Rights. (2004, July 8). Ilascu and Others v. Moldova and Russia. https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/fre#{%22itemid%22:[%22002-4244%22]}
Harsanyi, J. C. (1977). Rational behavior and bargaining equilibrium in games and social situations. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation, and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation, signed in Paris, France. (1997, May 27). NATO-Russia. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm
Kuhn, H. W. (1953). Extensive games and the problem of information. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Levada - Center. (2024, March). Approval of the authorities Levada Center. https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
McFaul, M. (2014). Faulty powers: Who started the Ukraine crisis? Foreign Affairs, 93(6), 167-178. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24483933
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 77-89. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24483306
Nord Stream AG welcomes shareholder agreement for additional gas supply infrastructure through the Baltic Sea. (2015, September 4). Nord Stream-Gazprom. https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/nord-stream-ag-welcomes-shareholder-agreement-for-additional-gas-supply-infrastructure-through-the-baltic-sea-470/
Statement NATO-Russia Council. (2002, March 28). https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50091.html
O’Reilly, K., & Higgins, N. (2008). The role of the Russian Federation in the Pridnestrovian conflict: An international humanitarian law perspective. Irish Studies in International Affairs, 19, 57-72. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25469836
President of Russia. (2022, February 24). Address by the President of the Russian Federation. http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67843
Renz, B. (2023). Was the Russian invasion of Ukraine a failure of Western deterrence? The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, 53(4). https://doi.org/10.55540/0031-1723.3256
Sarotte, M. E. (2014). A Broken Promise? What the West Really Told Moscow About NATO Expansion. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 90-97. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24483307
Schadlow, N. (2022, March 20). Why deterrence failed against Russia? The Washington Post. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-u-s-deterrence-failed-ukraine-putin-military-defense-11647794454
Whitmore, B. (2021, April 14). Realism, idealism, and the reset. Radio Free Europe. https://www.rferl.org/a/Realism_Idealism_And_The_Reset/2012521.html
Williams, C. J. (1995, September 9). Yeltsin lashes out at NATO strikes in Bosnia. The Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1995-09-09-mn-44006-story.html
Zagare, F. C., & Kilgour, D. M. (2000). Perfect deterrence. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.