THE ENTRY OF THE WORLD SYSTEM INTO A NEW CRISIS-MILITARISTIC PHASE OF CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT

PODLIESNA Vasylyna

Doctor of Sciences (Economics),

Assistant Professor, Leading Researcher,

Institute for Economics and Forecasting,

National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8435-1013, podlesnw2019@gmail.com



DOI: https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2024.2-01

JEL Classification:

UDC: 330.33.015:355.01


Received 05 October 2024

Accepted for publication 15 November 2024


Summary. The relevance of the study is associated with the beginning of the crisis-militaristic stage in the cyclical development of the world- system, and therefore with the strengthening of militarization at the global and local-global levels. The current crisis-militaristic stage 2020-2050 is an integral part of the current long cycle of world politics, hegemony cycle, systemic cycle of capital accumulation, as well as Kondratiev cycle. In historical retrospect, this took the form of “thirty-year world wars” and entailed destabilization of socio-economic development. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the entry of the world-system into the mode of the crisis-militaristic phase of cyclical development, which is a cyclical change of periods of relative stability with periods of its loss, immersion in crisis-militaristic instability, and also to explore the influence of local-global cycles on this process. In our research we applied primarily logical and historical methods, as well as dialectical ascent from the abstract to the concrete, including general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis. Main results of the study: during the crisis-militaristic phases of global cycles, the geopolitical system of global capitalism is plunged into the strongest instability, at the same time it is tested for strength; since the second half of the twentieth century, the aggravation of geopolitical contradictions has led to the unleashing of local-global conflicts; in cyclical geopolitical processes, local-global cycles of countries playing process-forming roles in the world geopolitical system play an important role; there are sufficient grounds to assert that the modern world-system is entering a crisis-militaristic phase of cyclical development. The local-global conflicts taking place today initiate a new cycle of militarization on a global and local-global scale; so far, a trend towards a steady increase in arms sales has already formed.

Keywords: militarization, world-system, global military-economic cycles, local-global military-economic cycles, crisis-militaristic phases, sustainable development, instability, local-global conflicts.


Introduction. The relevance of the study is conditioned by the beginning of a new crisis-militaristic stage in the development of the capitalist world-system, which is manifested both at the global and local-global levels. The modern crisis-militaristic stage (2020-2050) is formed by the unity of a variety of global cycles, among which the leading role is played by Kondratiev cycles, long cycles of world politics, hegemony cycles, and systemic cycles of capital accumulation. In historical retrospect, the crisis-militaristic stages of cyclical social development occurred in the form of “thirty-year world wars” and entailed a temporary increase in the instability of socio-economic development to the state of turbulence. The cyclical development of society may become sustainable if it acquires a form in which cyclical fluctuations of the economy, the severity of cyclical crises and all forms of social inequality are smoothed to the maximum extent possible, and the crisis-militaristic phases of military-economic cycles are transformed into non-militaristic phases of cyclical geopolitical processes, which makes it possible to avoid human casualties, economic and environmental damage from military actions.

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the entry of the world-system into the mode of crisis-militaristic phase of its cyclical development, which is a cyclical replacement of periods of relative stability with periods of its loss, plunging into crisis-militaristic instability, as well as to study the impact of local-global cycles on this process.

Literature Review. The unfolding of the crisis-militarist stage in the cyclical development of the modern world-system, which leads to its deviation from the trajectory of movement towards sustainable development, is studied in this article through the prism of theories of cyclicality of global political-economic and military-economic processes, in particular, the theory of long cycles of world politics by J. Modelski and W. Thompson (Modelski, 1995) and the theory of hegemony cycles developed by I. Wallerstein (Wallerstein, 1983). The influence of local-global cycles of the modern leader of the world-system on its cyclical development today and in the near future is substantiated based on the concept of J. Friedman (Friedman, 2021). The dynamics of military expenditures and arms sales is considered based on the statistical materials of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (SIPRI, 2024; SIPRI, 2024a), the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (Harward, et.al., 2024), the World Bank (World Bank, 2024), the State Web Portal "Budget for Citizens" (MFU, 2024).

Research Methods. The methodological basis of this study is mainly general scientific methods. Within the framework of logical and historical methods, as well as dialectical ascent from the abstract to the concrete, including general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, the beginning of the crisis-militaristic stage in the cyclical development of the modern world-system, as well as the role of local-global cycles of individual countries in this process was substantiated. The problem-chronological method and system approach were also applied.

Main results. Crisis-militaristic phases in the cyclical development of the capitalist world-system are periods of resolution of deep geopolitical contradictions by means of large-scale wars. In the historical process of development of the capitalist world-system, i.e. starting from the "long XVI century", the crisis-militaristic phases of global cycles unfolded in the form of “thirty-year wars”, the role of which in social development is substantiated in the works of leading researchers of its cyclicality, in particular in the works of I. Wallerstein. In his opinion, in each case hegemony was achieved through a thirty-year world war - a land war involving (not necessarily permanently) almost all major military powers of that era in large-scale clashes extremely devastating for the land and population (Wallerstein, 1983).

Since the second half of the 20th century, geopolitical contradictions have been partially resolved through diplomatic methods or local-global wars. Today, according to the chronology of unfolding of long cycles of world politics, the "macro-resolution" phase begins in the world-system, which in historical retrospect represented at least 30 years of intensified confrontation between competing leading actors of geopolitics (Modelski, 1995), having previously formed their geopolitical blocs during the "coalition building" phase, in which their allies and satellites are united.

The crisis-militaristic phase of each form of global cycles is a period of manifestation of extreme aggravation of contradictions in the system of interactions of certain competing social organisms, which leads to military-political conflict, the result of which determines the balance of power in a particular regional or global geopolitical system and creates the basis for overcoming the systemic crisis (Podliesna, 2024).

In the process of development of the capitalist world-system, the accumulated internal contradictions become more acute with a certain periodicity, which leads to its deep destabilization, that is, to the loss of the relative stability that allows it to develop without social catastrophes and large-scale manifestations of social violence. The unfolding of crisis-militaristic phases of global and local-global cycles causes a comprehensive militarization of the economy and public consciousness. A certain ecosystem of coexistence and constant interaction between the state; business, which provides for the needs of the military sphere; and civil society, whose consciousness becomes militaristically oriented under the influence of political and ideological instruments, is being formed.

In such an ecosystem, the actions of all actors are subordinated to the needs of the military sphere in its broadest sense, which includes the military economy and a special strictly regulated way of social life, limited by the requirements of the state of emergency conditioned by the ideology of war. Such a system is a mobilization form of social life, which ensures that society acquires relative stability, thanks to which it survives, mobilizes for the sake of achieving certain declared goals of the ruling class and creates an economic basis for overcoming cyclical socio-economic crises through the commercialization of war. In the twentieth century, the most successful example of the commercialization of war, which made it possible to overcome the Great Depression, was the application of the economic policy of military Keynesianism by the leading countries of the capitalist world-system.

A deep systemic crisis has been unfolding in the capitalist world-system since 2008; in the process of overcoming such crises of capitalism there is a partial resolution of its internal contradictions, which leads to the transformation of the capitalist system. Due to the current systemic crisis of capitalism, the world-system has critically approached the bifurcation point, i.e. a very important stage of the historical process for humanity is beginning.

At the current level of development of military technologies, the plunge of the world-system into the chaos of war, which corresponds to the established chronology of phases of global military-economic cycles, in particular such a form of them as long cycles of world politics (today the 10th long cycle of world politics is unfolding, which began in 1973 and should end in 2050 (Modelski, 1995)), poses threats to the existence of human civilization. Overcoming the systemic crisis of capitalism by means of a world war, which previously made it possible to reformat and stabilize the global geopolitical system, to overcome the economic crisis in the process of commercialization of war and to move to an upward wave in the long-term development of the capitalist economy, may, provided that nuclear weapons are used, throw humanity back to prehistoric times or destroy it altogether.

The current deep complex crisis of the world system indicates that it is about to enter the sixth Kondratiev cycle, which is impossible without large-scale introduction of innovations, including military ones. The "macro-resolution" phase of the long cycle of world politics has already begun by now to intensify the processes of unleashing wars and armed conflicts, which means the intensification of militarization of the economy and society. The technical and technological basis of these global cycles is the fourth industrial revolution, which significantly increases the destructive power of military technologies and generates new, in particular hybrid, forms of warfare.

Today, under the conditions of aggravated confrontation between the leading actors of geopolitics and their allies, the capitalist world-system has embarked on the path of militarization, as evidenced by the growth of arms sales. In 2021, when the entire world was under constraints on economic activity and social life in general due to the pandemic, arms sales by the top 100 arms manufacturers and military services companies ("SIPRI Top 100") totaled $592 billion, up 1.9% from 2020 and maintaining an upward trend since at least 2015. This growth occurred despite the effects of the pandemic, most notably supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and semiconductor shortages. The U.S. continued to dominate the ranking, being represented by 40 companies with total arms sales of $299 billion. The 2018-2022 arms sales volume was one of the highest since the end of the Cold War. Based on figures published by arms exporting states on the monetary value of their arms exports, SIPRI estimates the total value of the global arms trade in 2021 to be at least $127 billion, up from $95 billion in 2012 (in constant 2021 dollars) (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2024). At the same time, there are strong indications of rising tensions in many regions, especially in Europe, so it is likely that demand for major weapons will increase further in the coming years and will largely be met by foreign supplies. SIPRI counted 63 states as exporters of major arms in 2018-2022, but most of these states are small exporters, with the top 25 suppliers of major arms in 2018-2022 accounting for 98% of total exports. The top five suppliers during this period - the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany accounted for 76% of total exports. In 2018-2022 the US strengthened their position as the world's largest arms supplier, and the gap between them and Russia widened. In 2018-2022, U.S. arms exports were 14% higher than in 2013-2017, and their share of global exports increased from 33% to 40% (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2024).

Since the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008, arms trade has been increasing (Fig. 1), which is an important argument for the assumption that militarization has been chosen as a solution to this crisis.


Fig. 1. The trend in transfers of major arms, 1954 - 2023


Note: The bar graph shows the average annual volume of arms transfers over a five-year period and the line graph shows annual volumes

Source: SIPRI. (2024). Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/yb24_summary_en_2_1.pdf



The fact that a new cycle of militarization of the global economy has been opened is also evidenced by the growth of global military expenditures. The aggravation of geopolitical contradictions and, as a consequence, the unleashing of local-global military conflicts caused an increase in global military expenditures in 2023 by 6.8%, which was the sharpest annualized growth since 2009 and resulted in global military expenditures reaching the highest level ever recorded by SIPRI. In 2023, global military spending increased for the ninth consecutive year, reaching a total of $2,443 billion. The global military burden, defined as military spending as a percentage of global gross domestic product (GDP), increased to 2.3% in 2023. In 2023, global military spending per person was the highest since 1990 at $306 (SIPRI, 2024a). The increase in global military spending in 2023 is primarily due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East. Military spending increased in all five geographic regions.

Military expenditures as a share of public expenditures, which can be considered as an indicator of government priorities, increased in 2023 in 9 of the top 10 countries. Among the top 10 countries, the share of military expenditures in public spending was the highest in Ukraine (58%), followed by Saudi Arabia (24%) and Russia (16%). The most notable growth in 2023 was in Ukraine (+19%) and Russia (+3.2%) (SIPRI, 2024a). According to the State Web Portal "Budget for Citizens", which provides data from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, in 2023 defense spending in the state budget of Ukraine amounted to 52.25%; compared to the same indicator for 2021 (8.56%), the specific weight of defense spending increased 6.1 times (Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, 2024). The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the Russian government plans to spend 17 trillion rubles ($183 billion) on national security and defense in 2025 - about 41 percent of its annual expenditures (Harward, et.al. 2024).

From 2020, despite the socio-economic problems caused by the constraints justified by the spread of COVID-19, the share of military expenditures in public expenditures on a global scale is increasing (Fig. 2). Such dynamics of this indicator indicates a change in institutional and economic priorities in favor of militarization.



Fig. 2. Dynamics of world military expenditures (% of total public expenditures)


Source: based on World Bank. 2024. World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#



The main driving force of global cyclical processes of militarization is the competition between the leading states-actors of global geopolitics. Periodically, the aggravation of contradictions between geopolitical actors claiming the status of world leader leads to the unfolding of crisis-militaristic phases of global military-economic cycles. In the historical process of social development, the unfolding of crisis-militaristic phases of global military-economic cycles took place in the form of "proto-global" and "global" wars, which is substantiated in the theory of long cycles of world politics, revealing the essence of the cyclical process of gaining the status of world leader by certain states. In this process, the global wars of the new time performed the role of "macro-decisions"; in historical retrospect, the collective decisions adopted as a result of these wars became binding on the scale of the world system for a certain period of time (Modelski, 1995).

In cyclical geopolitical processes, an important role is played by local-global cycles inherent in the political-economic systems of countries, which perform at certain historical stages one of the following functions: leader (world hegemon); challenger for the role of the world-system leader or regional leader; the space of localization of the resolution of geopolitical contradictions. Today, the local-global cycles of the USA are the cycles of the leader of the world-system; of Germany - the regional leader, in the past the pretender to the role of the world leader; of Russia - the pretender to expand the space of its regional leadership and at the same time the space of localization of militaristic ways of resolving the aggravated geopolitical contradictions; of Ukraine - the space of localization of militaristic ways of resolving the aggravated geopolitical contradictions. In the unfolding of these cycles, periods of military violence play a cyclo-formative role.

Local-global military-economic cycles are intra-country cycles of certain countries, which perform in specific-historical conditions process-forming roles in the world geopolitical system, so these cycles have a significant impact on global cyclical dynamics.

Each form of local-global military-economic cycle has a crisis-militaristic phase. Such cycles should include, first of all: in the United States - institutional cycles, the unfolding of which in historical retrospect, according to J. Friedman, was triggered by wars: the War of Independence, the Civil War, World War II (Friedman, 2021); in Germany and Russia - local-global military-economic cycles, the first and at the same time cyclo-forming phase of which is the war, which allows assessing the effectiveness and viability of the political-economic system of the warring country.

The outbreak of the First and Second World Wars was largely due to the unfolding in Russia (later the USSR) and Germany, the countries that most clearly expressed the aggravation of contradictions in the world geopolitical system and claimed to increase their role in it, of a special local-global form of military-economic cycles, consisting of the following phases: 1) war, 2) post-war reforms of the political-economic system, and 3) socio-political transformations of a critical, often perturbational nature.

Germany played a special role in the cyclical dynamics of the capitalist world-system in the XIX-XX centuries, which was largely predetermined by its geopolitical position. According to H. Mackinder, the author of the "Heartland" theory, Germany occupies a central strategic position in Europe (Mackinder, 1904). The internal political and socio-economic processes that took place in Germany during this historical period became one of the most important prerequisites for the unfolding of large-scale wars, the results of which determined for quite a long time the balance of power in the world geopolitical space and influenced the economic situation on a global scale.

Germany acted as a Challenger (challenger for the role of global leader) during the 9th long cycle of world politics, which began in 1850. But in the "macro-solution" phase (1914-1945) of this cycle Germany was defeated (Modelski, 1995), as its political-economic system was unable to achieve the level of development necessary to attain the status of a global leader, as well as due to the presence of strong geopolitical competition from dynamically developing countries, particularly the United States. Germany has managed to take the place of a regional leader in the geopolitical system by the beginning of the 21st century, but in the process of unfolding of the modern world economic crisis, which began in 2008, the process of slow but inevitable decline of the German political-economic system began.

In Ukraine, the most relevant form of local-global cycles is the internal political cycle (Table 1), the cyclo-forming phase of which is a political crisis leading to social conflicts and violence. At the same time, the crisis phase of each subsequent internal political cycle is characterized by an increase in the scale of social conflict and intensification of social violence, which became more and more systemic and purposeful. The particular form of the internal political cycle in Ukraine consists of three phases: 1) political crisis; 2) presidential elections that do not correspond to the legally established chronology of the electoral process; 3) a relatively stable electoral process that includes the next presidential election (Table 1). Since 1993, three political cycles with an average duration of 11 years have been fully unfolded in Ukraine.

Socio-economic prerequisites of political crisis in each such cycle are the aggravation of contradictions within political-economic elites, the growth of dissatisfaction of the population with the pace and quality of socio-economic transformations, and political grounds are the competition of elites and the influence of the international political conjuncture. The entire historical retrospective of political cycles in Ukraine is a process of forming the grounds for its inclusion in the global military-economic cyclicality as a space of localization of the resolution of geopolitical contradictions (Podliesna, 2024). It was the unfolding of domestic political cycles in Ukraine in the form in which they occurred, when the crisis phase of each subsequent domestic political cycle led to the growth of latent social confrontation and to the unbalancing of the Ukrainian political-economic system, that led this system to the state that allowed Ukraine to become a space of localization of processes of military resolution of deep civilizational and geopolitical contradictions, periodically aggravated in the course of cyclical social development.

The localization of global contradictions in the civilizational space of Ukraine with the subsequent unfolding of military conflict is largely due to the fact that in Eurasia, which, according to Z. Brzezinski, occupies an axial position in geopolitical terms, and "represents a chessboard on which the struggle for global domination continues", Ukraine is the geopolitical center, without control over which Russia is unable to recreate a Eurasian empire (Brzezinski, 2016).


Table 1. Medium-term political cycles in Ukraine

Cycle phase

Time period

First cycle

Political crisis

1993-1994

Presidential elections that do not comply with the legally established chronology of the electoral process

1994

Sustainable electoral process, including regular presidential elections

1995-2003

Second cycle

Political crisis

2003-2004

Presidential elections that do not comply with the legally established chronology of the electoral process

2004

Sustainable electoral process, including regular presidential elections

2005-2013

Third cycle

Political crisis

2013-2014

Presidential elections that do not comply with the legally established chronology of the electoral process

2014

Sustainable electoral process, including regular presidential elections

2015-2024

Source: developed by the author


Today, a local-global conflict is unfolding on the Eurasian continent in the form of the Russian-Ukrainian large-scale military-political conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also resumed. These local-global armed conflicts have the potential for the beginning of military confrontation between military-political blocs, and they also contributed to the strengthening of militarization processes on a global scale to ensure the conduct of military operations at the local level with the prospect of expanding to the scale of global war.

After the outbreak of localized global conflict in 2022, Ukraine can sustain its annual budget only with a combination of tax increases, debt, and international financial assistance, with non-military financing deficits reaching approximately $40 billion in 2023. The financial aid packages provided to Ukraine by the EU and the US in 2022 and 2023 were crucial to free up the resources needed to finance its armed forces (SIPRI, 2024). The local-global conflict in Ukraine has not only destroyed its economy, but has also created deep social and environmental destructions that will hinder its sustainable socio-economic development for a long time to come.

The unleashing of hostilities in Ukraine has caused Western countries to increase supplies of military equipment, ammunition and related goods to Ukraine, as well as to increase their defense spending and investments in the military-industrial complex. In particular, the U.S. Department of Defense reports that support for Ukraine has mobilized the defense-industrial base in ways not seen in decades. Assistance has been provided either through presidential authorization, where weapons are removed from the military's arsenal and shipped overseas, or through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), where the government directly contracts with industry to ship new weapons to Ukraine as soon as they are ready. When weapons are removed from existing U.S. arsenals, they must be replaced to ensure that U.S. military units maintain their own combat readiness. At the same time, defense contractors are busy building new weapons to replace what has been shipped overseas, as well as producing new capabilities to fulfill USAI orders. Overall, the Department of Defense's PDA replenishment commitments and USAI orders totaling more than $27 billion directly impact leading and critical suppliers in 37 states (Todd Lopez, 2023).

The need to strengthen the defense industry has been recognized by the European Parliament, arguing that it is Russia's war with Ukraine that has exposed the problems facing the European defense industry. EU member states have increased their defense budgets, with the combined total expected to reach €350 billion in 2024. An ambitious action plan to strengthen security and defense policy until 2030 - the defense concept "Strategic Compass for Security and Defense" - was approved in March 2022. This defense concept focuses on increased investment and a more consolidated approach to defense spending, capability development and research. EU Member States agreed to significantly increase their defense spending and improve their defense budget expenditures by increasing interoperability and reducing fragmentation, especially by using existing instruments such as the European Defense Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). EU Member States have committed to strengthen work on defense innovation by bringing together civil, space and defense research, and through initiatives such as the establishment of the Hub for EU Defense Innovation (HEDI). In March 2024, the European Commission proposed the first-ever European defense industrial strategy and a program to implement it. At the meeting in June 2024 EU leaders adopted the "Strategic Agenda 2024-2029", which aims to improve the conditions for the expansion of the European defense industry by creating a more integrated European defense market and by facilitating joint procurement, also welcomes flagship projects and defense initiatives by Member States, recognizing the need to strengthen the role of the European Investment Bank Group in financing these processes (EP, 2024).

Today, the capitalist world-system is plunged into the strongest instability, the institutional practices of interaction between the actors of geopolitics, established after the completion of the "macro-decision" phase (1914-1945) of the next (9th) long cycle of world politics, are collapsing. In the modern world-system, the competitive struggle between the contenders for the role of world leader, as well as between the countries vying for the status of regional leaders, has become critically aggravated. This geopolitical situation corresponds to the logic and chronology of the unfolding of long cycles of world politics, as well as the institutional cycles of the modern world hegemon - the United States.

Large-scale destructive consequences are inevitable for the countries on whose territory the main events of crisis-militaristic phases of global cycles are localized, in particular for Ukraine. During the war, Ukraine continues to experience significant destructive structural, demographic, socio-economic, institutional and other social transformations. In particular, the trends of accelerated depopulation, large-scale migration of Ukrainians abroad and the actual cessation of basic reproduction of the population in general and the labor force in particular have become more acute. The war had a profound shock effect on the socio-economic situation in Ukraine. Overcoming these consequences and further reconstruction requires significant investment funds and efforts, the estimated total need for reconstruction funds in 2023-2026 is 128 billion dollars, and for 2023-2033 it is almost 411 billion dollars (Burlay, et.al., 2023).

Based on the chronology of unfolding of the "macro-resolution" phases of the long cycles of world politics, which in historical retrospect lasted at least 30 years, in the 2026-2050s there will be a militarization of the economy and society of the countries which are active participants in the geopolitical confrontation. As already noted, the US has recently strengthened its position as the world's largest arms supplier. In the National Security Strategy adopted in 2022, in order to achieve its main goals, the Biden administration considered it necessary to: invest in the main sources and instruments of American power and influence; create the strongest possible coalition of nations to strengthen collective influence in order to shape the global strategic environment and solve common problems; modernize and strengthen the U.S. military in order for it to be ready for the era of strategic competition (The White House, 2022). Also, a new cycle of economic militarization has begun in the EU, as evidenced by the European Commission's March 2024 program for strengthening the EU defense industry, which includes co-financing and ordering of weapons, modernization of the EU military-industrial complex, and other measures to strengthen defense companies. Under the new strategy, EU countries are asked to purchase jointly at least 40% of defense equipment by 2030 and to ensure the value of intra-EU defense trade to be at least 35% of the value of the EU defense market by 2030. From 2025 to 2027, €1.5 billion will be allocated from the EU budget to improve the competitiveness of the technological and industrial base of the European defense sector. Also, the European defense industrial strategy aims to encourage European arms manufacturers to increase investment, improve production efficiency, and, for the first time, collectively catalog their weapons in the long term (European Commission, 2024).

Thus, in the cyclical development of the capitalist world-system today there is a crisis-militaristic stage, which is manifested not only in the unleashing of local-global conflicts in the territories of countries on the civilizational fault lines, primarily the local-global conflict in Ukraine, as well as the renewed Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but also in the growth of arms sales on a global scale, as well as in the adoption by the leading actors of geopolitics of long-term strategic development plans for the development of the region.

Discussion

Today, the cyclical development of the capitalist world-system begins to unfold the crisis-militaristic phases of modern global military-economic cycles, in particular: the "intermediate war" that stimulates the economy to move to the upward wave of the 6th Kondratiev cycle; the "macro-resolution" phase of the modern long cycle of world politics; the "thirty-year world war" phase of the modern cycle of hegemony, the phase of territorialism (material expansion) of the new systemic cycle of capital accumulation.

In the process of unfolding of crisis-militaristic phases of global military-economic cycles, and thus comprehensive militarization of the economy and social relations, the capitalist world-system is plunged into the strongest instability, its stability is significantly tested. After the completion of each crisis-militaristic stage of cyclical development of the capitalist world-system, it temporarily stabilizes due to the fact that the new leader of the world geopolitical system, or the old leader who has retained his dominance, establishes technical-technological, socio-economic, military-political, ecological and cultural guidelines of development for the whole world. In historical retrospect, it was the countries that achieved the status of hegemon that, during the period of their dominance in the world-system, determined the institutional practices of international relations for the long term. This ensured relative sustainability of social development on a global scale, although conditions for different countries were unequal and determined by their geopolitical status.

The beginning of the next crisis-militaristic stage of the cyclical process of development of the capitalist world-system initiates the transition to the war footing of the countries where local-global wars are taking place, as well as large-scale militarization of the political-economic systems of the countries - pretenders to the role of world leader and their allies. Any reformatting of the structure of the political-economic system, due to the change of strategic guidelines of its development, in particular, from the priority of building a "consumer society" to the priority of forming a militaristic society, leads to the destabilization of established socio-economic and institutional practices of social life. That is, the stability of the political-economic system is temporarily reduced, while at the same time transformation processes are taking place, forming a mobilization society as an intermediate form that provides relative stability of socio-economic development. Countries, on whose territory the militaristic processes of geopolitical confrontation are localized, should choose the most effective political-economic model for their survival and development, that is, make a fundamental decision: to create a militarized society of mobilization character, oriented towards decades of war, or to choose a model oriented towards stabilization and solidarization of society, turning towards the implementation of the concept of the social state.

Local-global cycles of countries that play process-forming roles in the world geopolitical system, have a determining influence on the cyclical development of the capitalist world-system. The strongest influence is exerted by local-global cycles of the modern world leader - the USA, first of all, the American institutional cycle. Based on the chronology of its unfolding, large-scale transformations in the world-system will begin as early as 2025 (Friedman, 2021). These transformations will take place during the "macro-resolution" phase of the current long cycle of world politics, the unfolding of which is stimulated by the local-global conflict in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which clearly outlined the contours of military-political blocs and their fundamental contradictions, as well as geopolitical and economic goals. The unfolding of the local-global military conflict in Ukraine chronologically coincides with the transition from the third to the fourth internal political cycle.

Germany as a regional leader is currently experiencing the deepest systemic crisis since the unification of East and West Germany. The political and economic system of the Russian Federation in modern conditions has also revealed many internal contradictions and disproportions, indicating a latent systemic crisis, the full-scale unfolding of which is restrained only by special historically established tools of institutional regulation of social processes. That is, in the unfolding of the local-global military-political cycles of Germany and Russia there has come another crisis-militaristic phase - the period of assessing the effectiveness and, in general, the viability of their political-economic systems. Involvement in military-political events in modern conditions can take place both in an explicit form and in the form of participation in hybrid warfare.

Conclusion

The local-global conflict in Ukraine and the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict have actualized and intensified the process of unfolding of crisis-militaristic phases of modern global military-economic cycles, as evidenced by the strengthening of militaristic rhetoric in the information space and diplomatic sphere (especially during 2021-2024), the commercialization of war, the growth of military sales, the adoption by the leading actors of geopolitics of long-term strategic plans to strengthen their defensive capabilities, in particular, to strengthen their arms industry.

The resolution of geopolitical contradictions by militaristic means, both in the form of "global" wars (crisis-militaristic phases of global cycles) and in the form of smaller-scale military-political conflicts (crisis-militaristic phases of local-global cycles) temporarily hinders the achievement of sustainable development goals, declared today by the leading actors of geopolitics as the most important guidelines for the development of human civilization. The unfolding of the crisis-militaristic phases of global and local-global military-economic cycles is a period of deviation from the benchmarks of sustainable development in the conditions of geopolitical turbulence, but it is precisely at this time economic, technical-technological, political and institutional grounds are being created to overcome the crisis of the geopolitical system and return to the trajectory of movement towards sustainable development.

Militarization of the economy and public consciousness is a rather effective tool for implementing the mobilization scenario of overcoming deep crises of the capitalist economy, but at the same time it generates contradictions and disproportions of social reproduction, destruction of public consciousness, which ultimately leads to even deeper crises. Therefore, militarization allows temporarily stabilizing the political-economic system, returning it to the path of achieving sustainable development goals, but creates grounds for destabilization of society in the long term, so it cannot be recognized as an appropriate way to overcome crises at the global and local levels.

Today, the direction and dynamism of global crisis-militaristic processes are largely determined by the nature of the unfolding of the local-global conflict in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; their outcome largely determines the balance of power in the global geopolitical system and, in general, the nature and outcome of the next crisis-militaristic stage in the cyclical development of the world system. Upon completion of this stage, a new relatively stable form of civilizational development will be formed.


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