2018: Journal no. 1

FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF DOMESTIC GOODS AND MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Downloads: 203
Views: 62

Authors:  
Valentina GANCIUCOV, PhD, Coordinating Scientific Researcher, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova
Tatiana GUTIUM, PhD Student, Scientific Researcher, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova
Alexandru CEBAN, PhD Student, Scientific Researcher, National Institute for Economic Research, Republic of Moldova

Managing both the modern state and the enterprises is impossible without forecasting and elaborating several development scenarios that would take into account the available resources and reflect the most likely results. The forecast has become a part of daily life and a fundamental tool for assessing development prospects. Therefore, the task of improving the economic-mathematical model for the development of forecasts is relevant, especially in modern conditions, when the national economy is subject to many factors, both external and internal. The main goal of the research is to forecast the production of domestic goods and the main macroeconomic indicators using the economic-mathematical model adapted by authors to the new conditions for the development of the Moldovan economy, considering that the share of the non-observed economy in 2016 is less than in the previous year, but remains significant. The main methods used in this study: the “input-output” method, econometric methods of research and forecasting, regression analysis, the method of analytical calculation, the method of mathematical modelling of economic processes. Using the adapted model and taking into account the processes established in the national economy, forecast interbranch balances for 2018 were developed in the division of goods, integrated into five branches of national economy, and forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators for the Republic of Moldova were developed.

Keywords:  
modelul „intrări-ieșiri”, indicatori economici, serii de date macroeconomice, previziuni, producție, previziunea comerțului, Republica Moldova.