Alexandru GRIBINCEA, PhD, Professor, ULIM
While major oil exporting countries have made a solid recovery, most of the oil importing countries continue to struggle, which reflects, in large part, regional political and security issues, the inability of governments to implement difficult policy reforms, and continued slow global growth. The increased financial support from some major oil exporting countries has helped a number of oil importing countries to stave off economic challenges. However, underlying conditions at the economic growth remain highly vulnerable to domestic and external risks. The economic environment has some near and medium term perspectives, but it still stays fragile and, unless there are addressed hursh measures, regional political and security instability could heighten.
The plot of article is based on the economic developments and perspectives of the Middle East and Central Asia countries against low oil prices, which has been changed today due to variable energy policies in the new global world system. The subject of article has been searched within the following framework:
– decrease of the oil prices makes some difficulties for the oil exporters and limited benefits for the oil importers;
– exporters have to adapt to the expenditures, reform of subventions for energy, in order to diversify the economy with the decrease of the share of oil industry;
– importers should avoid the expenditures of unexpected benefits, to continue the subvention reform, to increase the level of employment and the growth rate.
The goal of research is to study the influence of the price factor on the economic situation of the Middle East and Central Asia countries as a consequence on the countries from the Baltic Region, including the Republic of Moldova.
The methodology of research. Statistical methods of analysis, comparison methods, dialectical methods, historical methods and etc. have been used for the analisys.
The research and analysis. In the 80s (XXth century), the average oil price was 36 USD per barrel, similar to 2004. By 2008 oil prices rose to 97 USD. After the mortgage lending crisis in the US, accompanied by the collapse of the largest financial services companies, has caused a sharp decline in economic activity and a collapse of stock markets and commodities in 2008; oil prices in 2008-2009 reduced to 70 USD. As a result, in 2009, the global economy fell by 0.6%, which affected international trade, which decreased by 11% after an increase of 8% in 2004-2008.