SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PREDICTORS OF DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION. A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT

Abstract

This paper examines democratic consolidation as a dynamic and non-linear process shaped by structural socio-economic conditions and institutional capacity, rather than as a fixed or irreversible political outcome. Building on classic and contemporary theories of democracy and consolidation. The study advances a quantitative and comparative analysis of European Union member states over the period 2006–2022. Democratic consolidation is operationalised through the Democracy Index developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit, while explanatory variables capture economic development, social welfare, inequality, poverty, state fragility and education, using data from Eurostat, the World Happiness Report and the Fragile States Index. Methodologically, the research combines descriptive analysis (box-plots and cartographic representations), Pearson correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression. The results indicate systematic associations between the level of democracy and socio-economic performance. The regression model explains a substantial share of cross-national variation in democratic outcomes within the EU, though notable residuals highlight the limits of purely socio-economic explanations and point to the role of additional institutional and political factors. The findings reveal persistent structural divides between Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe and confirm the phenomenon of democratic erosion in several post-communist states. Overall, the study underscores that democratic consolidation depends not only on formal electoral institutions, but also on inclusive economic development, social protection and institutional resilience. These results have important implications for both comparative democratic theory and EU-level public policy aimed at safeguarding democratic quality and preventing democratic backsliding.